In the short term, lead prices held up well. [Institutional Commentary]

SHFE lead ingot futures inventory recorded 38,300 mt, with the domestic market spot-futures price spread at -85 yuan/mt, and the price spread between the continuous contract and the 1st contract after expiration of front-month contract at -10 yuan/mt. LME lead ingot inventory recorded 277,100 mt, with LME lead ingot cancelled warrants at 113,400 mt. The overseas market cash-3S contract spot-futures price spread was -$20/mt, the 3-15 price spread was -$74/mt, the SHFE/LME price ratio after exchange rate adjustment was 1.199, and the lead ingot import profit/loss was -314.32 yuan/mt.

Overall, primary supply remained high, while recycled raw material supply was tight. The import window is approaching, and imported lead ingots may flow in, leading to a generally loose supply of lead ingots. Downstream battery enterprises maintained high operating rates, and overall demand remained stable. Current macro disturbances are receding, and SHFE lead volatility continues to decline. In the medium term, the SHFE lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,300-17,800, while short-term lead prices are holding up well.